網(wǎng)絡課程異軍突起

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1、 網(wǎng)絡課程異軍突起 An army of new online courses is scaring the wits out of traditional universities. But can they find a viable business model? 浩浩蕩蕩的新型網(wǎng)絡課程對傳統(tǒng)大學造成了不小的威脅，它能發(fā)展出可行的商業(yè)模式嗎？ DOTCOM mania was slow in coming to higher education, but now it has the venerable industry firmly in its grip. Since t

2、he launch early last year of Udacity and Coursera, two Silicon Valley start-ups offering free education through MOOCs, massive open online courses, the ivory towers of academia have been shaken to their foundations. University brands built in some cases over centuries have been forced to contemplate

3、 the possibility that information technology will rapidly make their existing business model obsolete. Meanwhile, the MOOCs have multiplied in number, resources and student recruitment—without yet having figured out a business model of their own. 網(wǎng)絡狂熱在教育界一直波瀾不興，不過最近網(wǎng)絡已征服這一神圣的行業(yè)。隨著去年上半年硅谷兩家新秀Udacity

4、和Coursera通過MOOC（大規(guī)模網(wǎng)絡公開課平臺）開通免費在線課程，象牙塔內學術權威的地位遭到了動搖。幾個世紀以來聲名遠揚的大學也開始心里打鼓，擔心信息技術會很快造成其現(xiàn)行商業(yè)模式過時。另外，在沒有自身商業(yè)模式的情況下，MOOC在數(shù)量、資源和招生人數(shù)上已翻了好幾番。 請預覽后下載！ Besides providing online courses to their own (generally fee-paying) students, universities have felt obliged to join the MOOC revolution to avoid being

5、 guillotined by it. Coursera has formed partnerships with 83 universities and colleges around the world, including many of America’s top-tier institutions. 除了為本學校的學生提供在線課程外（通常情況下須付費），各個大學覺得自己有義務加入MOOC變革的陣營，從而避免被逼上絕路。Coursera已經與來自世界各地的83所大學建立合作關系，其中包括美國的不少頂尖學府。 EdX, a non-profit MOOC provider found

6、ed in May 2012 by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and backed with $60m of their money, is now a consortium of 28 institutions, the most recent joiner being the Indian Institute of Technology in Mumbai. Led by the Open University, which pioneered distance-learning in

7、the 1970s, FutureLearn, a consortium of 21 British, one Irish and one Australian university, plus other educational bodies, will start offering MOOCs later this year. But Oxford and Cambridge remain aloof, refusing to join what a senior Oxford figure fears may be a “l(fā)emming-like rush” into MOOCs. E

8、dX是一家非盈利性MOOC供應商，由哈佛大學和麻省理工學院出資6000美元于2012年5月成立。如今它已發(fā)展成包括28個學校在內的聯(lián)合體，最新成員是印度孟買的技術學院。開放式大學是上世紀90年代遠程教育的先驅，在其帶領下由21所英國大學、一所愛爾蘭大學和一所澳大利亞大學組成的FutureLearn將于今年下半年開始提供開放式課程。但是牛津和劍橋仍然敬而遠之，劍橋的一位權威人士稱，他們不想“趨之若鶩”。 On July 10th Coursera said it had raised another $43m in venture capital, on top of the $22m it

9、banked last year. Although its enrolments have soared, and now exceed 4m students, this is a huge leap of faith by investors that the firm can develop a viable business model. The new money should allow Coursera to build on any advantage it has from being a first mover among a rapidly growing number

10、 of MOOC providers. 請預覽后下載！ “It is somewhat entertaining to watch the number of people jumping on board,” says Daphne Koller, a Stanford professor and co-founder of Coursera. She expects it to become one of a “very small number of dominant players”. 7月10日Coursera發(fā)布消息，在去年2200萬美元存款的基礎上，它又通過風投募集到

11、4300萬美元。它的招生人數(shù)也突飛猛進，如今已突破400萬，這也使得投資者信心猛增，認為該公司能夠發(fā)展出可行的商業(yè)模式。Coursera可以借助這筆新款項，充分發(fā)揮任何一個有利條件，在迅速增加的MOOC供應商中搶占先機。斯坦福大學教授、Coursera創(chuàng)始人之一的Daphne Koller說，看到越來越多的人參與進來可謂樂在其中。她希望Coursera成為鳳毛麟角的主導型玩家。 The industry has similar network economics to Amazon, eBay and Google, says Ms Koller, in that “content prod

12、ucers go to where most consumers are, and consumers go to where the most content is.” Simon Nelson, the chief executive of FutureLearn, disagrees. “Anyone who thinks the rules of engagement have already been written by the existing players is massively underestimating the potential of the technology

13、,” he says. Daphne Koller稱這一行業(yè)與亞馬遜、易貝和谷歌等網(wǎng)購經濟類似，共同點在于“供應商逐消費者而居，消費者逐產品而居”。不過FutureLearn的首席執(zhí)行官Simon Nelson不認同這一觀點。他認為“如果有人認為網(wǎng)絡課程的游戲規(guī)則已被現(xiàn)存行業(yè)總結出來，那他就大大低估了網(wǎng)絡技術的潛力”。 Certainly, there is plenty of experimentation with business models taking place. The MOOCs themselves may be free, but those behind them

14、think there will be plenty of revenue opportunities. Coursera has started charging to provide certificates for those who complete its courses and want proof, perhaps for a future employer. It is also starting to license course materials to universities that want to beef up their existing offering. H

15、owever, it has abandoned for now attempts to help firms recruit employees from among Coursera’s students, because catering to the different needs of each employer was “not a scalable model 請預覽后下載！ ”, says Ms Koller. 自然，適用的商業(yè)模式還需要大量實驗。網(wǎng)絡課程是免費的，不過幕后經營者認為并不缺乏賺錢的機會。Coursera已開始向修完全部課程并需要證明材料（日后找工作時或

16、許用得上）的學員提供收費證書。還有些大學想要充實現(xiàn)行課程，Coursera就為其課程教材頒發(fā)許可證。不過Coursera暫時不與公司合作招聘網(wǎng)絡課程學員，Daphne Koller解釋說，雇主對雇員的要求千差萬別，“沒有可縮放的模型”來滿足他們的不同要求。 For Udacity, in contrast, working with companies to train existing and future employees is now the heart of its business model. It has tie-ups with several firms, includi

17、ng Google. It recently formed a partnership with AT&T, along with Georgia Tech, to offer a master’s degree in computer science. Course materials will be free, but students will pay around $7,000 for tuition. EdX is taking yet another tack, selling its MOOC technology to universities like Stanford, b

18、oth to create their own MOOC offerings and to make physically attending university more attractive, by augmenting existing teaching. 與之相反，Udacity的核心商業(yè)模式就是與公司合作，培訓現(xiàn)任和未來的職員。它與若干公司建立了聯(lián)系，其中包括谷歌。最近它與AT&T和喬治亞理工大學建立了合作關系，提供計算機科學專業(yè)的碩士學位。課程教材是免費的，不過學員要支付約7000美元的學費。EdX則采取另一種套路，它將MOOC技術賣給斯坦福等大學，這樣既能開設自己的MOOC網(wǎng)

19、絡課程，又能通過充實現(xiàn)行教學增強實體大學的吸引力。 This lecture is brought to you by… 這堂課來自…… Alison, an Irish provider of free, mostly vocational education founded in 2007, before MOOCs got their name, is generating plenty of revenue by selling advertising on its site. “Ads propelled radio and TV, why not education? The

20、re is a lot of misplaced snobbery in education about advertising,” says Mike Feerick, Alison’s founder. 愛爾蘭網(wǎng)絡課程（多為職業(yè)教育）供應商Alison成立于2007年，那時MOOC尚未得名。Alison通過在網(wǎng)站上展播廣告賺得盆滿缽滿。Alison創(chuàng)始人Mike Feerick稱， 請預覽后下載！ “廣告促進了廣播和電視的發(fā)展，教育為何不能分一杯羹呢？教育不該對廣告擺臭架子”。 Another important category of MOOC providers are p

21、ublishers, says Rob Lytle of the Parthenon Group, a consultancy. He says firms like Pearson (part-owner of The Economist) that run educational businesses such as textbook-publishing may thrive by offering free MOOCs as a way to get people to buy their related paid content. 咨詢機構Parthenon集團的Rob Lytle

22、說，MOOC供應商的另一種重要類別是出版商。他說經營教育類業(yè)務（如出版教材）、類似Pearson（持有《經濟學人》部分股權）這樣的公司，通過提供網(wǎng)絡課程，促使消費者購買相關教材，一定會蓬勃發(fā)展。 Besides the uncertainty over which business model, if any, will produce profits, there is disagreement over how big the market will be. Some see a zero- or negative-sum game, in which cheap online prov

23、iders radically reduce the cost of higher education and drive many traditional institutions to the wall. Others believe this effect will be dwarfed by the dramatic increase in access to higher education that the MOOCs will bring. 就算找到合適的商業(yè)模式順利盈利，這一市場的規(guī)模大小仍然存在爭議。有些人認為會出現(xiàn)零和甚至負和的局面，廉價的網(wǎng)課造成高等教育成本跳樓，將很多

24、傳統(tǒng)大學逼到絕路。其他人則認為MOOC會顯著拓展接受高等教育的途徑，這樣一來負面影響就不值一提。 Mr Feerick predicts that the market will be commoditised, spelling trouble for many institutions. But Anant Agarwal, the boss of EdX, reckons the MOOC providers will be more like online airline-booking services, expanding the market by improving the

25、customer experience. Sebastian Thrun, Udacity’s co-founder, thinks the effect will be similar in magnitude to what the creation of cinema did to demand for staged fiction: he predicts a tenfold increase in the market for higher education. Feerick預測這一市場將被商品化，使很多大學陷入被動。不過EdX的老板Anant Agarwal認為，MOOC的供應

26、商就像網(wǎng)絡機票預訂服務一樣，通過改善用戶體驗來拓展市場。Udacity的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人Sebastian Thrun則認為網(wǎng)絡課程的作用就像電影院對舞臺劇的影響一樣，他預測高等教育市場的規(guī)模將擴大十倍 請預覽后下載！ 。 Sceptics point to the MOOCs’ high drop-out rates, which in some cases exceed 90%. But Coursera and Udacity both insist that this reflects the different expectations of consumers of free

27、products, who can browse costlessly. Both firms have now studied drop-out rates for those students who start with the stated intention of finishing, and found that the vast majority of them complete the courses. 懷疑派指出MOOC提高了輟學率，在一些案例中甚至超過90%。不過Coursera和Udacity都堅持這種情況反映了消費者對免費產品的不同預期，他們可以分文不花瀏覽相關課程。

28、根據(jù)學員的修課意向，兩家公司在課程伊始就跟蹤調查學員的退學率，結果他們發(fā)現(xiàn)絕大多數(shù)學員修滿了課程。 Besides LearnCapital, a Silicon Valley venture firm, and the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, the participants in Coursera’s $43m fund-raising included Laureate, an operator of for-profit universities. Doug Becker, its boss, reckons t

29、hat many established universities will soon offer credits towards their degrees for those who complete MOOCs. He thinks this will drive a dramatic reduction in the price of a traditional higher education, that will reduce the total revenues of existing providers by far more than the revenue gained b

30、y the start-ups. Still, if MOOCs reduce the cost of higher education by one-third, as he predicts, yet only earn for themselves 1% of that benefit, that would “still be a very nice business,” he says. 除了硅谷投機公司LearnCapital和世界銀行國際金融公司，Coursera公司4300萬美元的出資方還包括盈利性大學經營商Laureate。Laureate的老板Doug Becker認為很

31、多現(xiàn)有大學會很快向修完MOOC的學員提供學分，從而取得該學校的學位。他還認為這將大大降低傳統(tǒng)高等教育的學費，進而降低現(xiàn)行供應商和新秀供應商的總利潤，不過新老供應商的利潤下滑程度可謂小巫見大巫。Doug Becker預測即便如此，假如MOOC高等教育成本降低三分之一，只為自身獲得1%的利益，那 請預覽后下載！ “仍是一筆不錯的買賣”。 【注釋】大型開放式網(wǎng)絡課程，即MOOC（massive open online courses）。2012年，美國的頂尖大學陸續(xù)設立網(wǎng)絡學習平臺，在網(wǎng)上提供免費課程，Coursera、Udacity、edX三大課程提供商的興起，給更多學生提供了系統(tǒng)學習的可能。 （注：可編輯下載，若有不當之處，請指正，謝謝!） 請預覽后下載！