電力公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)與估值模型

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1、電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型分分析析員員在此填寫您的姓名會(huì)會(huì)計(jì)計(jì)年年度度末末電電話話電話號(hào)碼貨貨幣幣模模型型制制作作日日期期2005/12/31數(shù)數(shù)量量單單位位說(shuō)說(shuō)明明=輸入數(shù)字假設(shè)，可以變動(dòng)。11.4=歷史或給定數(shù)字，不能變動(dòng)。11.4=公式，不能變動(dòng)。=批注，建模的提示。12月31日人民幣百萬(wàn)電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型目目錄錄工作表名稱1財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)Input收入預(yù)測(cè)Revenue固定資產(chǎn)PP&E融資計(jì)劃Financing中間計(jì)算Cal損益表IS資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表BS現(xiàn)金流量表CFS2估值模型比例

2、Ratios折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流模型DCF可比公司法Comps電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)假假設(shè)設(shè)2003年2004年2005年2006年收收入入預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)三峽總投產(chǎn)機(jī)組數(shù)（臺(tái)）14.014.0三峽單機(jī)組裝機(jī)容量（百萬(wàn)千瓦）0.70.7三峽機(jī)組年發(fā)電小時(shí)數(shù)（小時(shí)）5,508.85,404.8新收購(gòu)三峽機(jī)組數(shù)（臺(tái)/年）0.0三峽機(jī)組上網(wǎng)率100.0%三峽機(jī)組平均上網(wǎng)電價(jià)（不含稅，元/度）0.210.22葛洲壩機(jī)組總裝機(jī)容量（百萬(wàn)千瓦）2.72.7葛洲壩機(jī)組年發(fā)電小時(shí)數(shù)（小時(shí)）6,003.

3、75,672.2葛洲壩平均上網(wǎng)率100.0%葛洲壩機(jī)組平均上網(wǎng)電價(jià)（不含稅，元/度）0.140.16固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)資本性支出9,988.63,000.0已存固定資產(chǎn)折舊1,219.3融融資資計(jì)計(jì)劃劃短期借款發(fā)行（償還）0.0循環(huán)貸款及短期借款利率5.6%長(zhǎng)期借款利率6.3%長(zhǎng)期借款發(fā)行（償還）1,000.0貨幣資金利率1.8%新股發(fā)行數(shù)量0.0新股發(fā)行價(jià)格（元）0.00損損益益表表補(bǔ)貼收入/主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入8.8%8.8%7.7%7.7%其他業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)/主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入0.4%0.3%0.2%0.3%主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)稅金及附加/主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本/主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入12.4%8

4、.9%7.6%7.1%營(yíng)業(yè)費(fèi)用1.81.81.91.9管理費(fèi)用/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入3.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%攤銷1.0其他收入和費(fèi)用8.35.657.657.6所得稅率27.0%33.0%32.9%33.0%1003.022.112.132.10資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負(fù)負(fù)債債表表所需資金/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入6.0%短期投資266.1266.1應(yīng)收票據(jù)/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入12.5%9.2%0.6%9.2%應(yīng)收帳款/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入35.2%21.7%17.7%16.7%其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入2.6%3.6%3.4%3.5%長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資2,192.62,192.6應(yīng)付帳款/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入9.3%17.8%8.1%11.7%應(yīng)交稅金/所得

5、稅65.2%74.1%73.1%70.0%其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債/總營(yíng)業(yè)收入12.7%5.9%4.4%4.4%紅利/當(dāng)年凈利潤(rùn)54.0%10011.7336322預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2007年2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年20.026.026.026.026.026.026.00.70.70.70.70.70.70.75,404.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.82.03.03.02.02.02.02.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.220.220.220.

6、220.220.220.222.72.72.72.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.8100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.160.160.160.160.160.160.1610,000.015,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.01,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%

7、5.6%5.6%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%0.011,000.06,000.05,000.05,000.04,000.03,000.01.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1,228.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.500.000.000.000.000.000.007.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.91.91.91.91.91.91.92.1%

8、2.0%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.01.01.01.01.01.01.057.657.657.657.657.657.657.633.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%2.102.001.981.961.941.921.906.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型9.0%8.8%8.6%8.4%8.2%8.0%7.8%16.7%16.2%16.2%16.2%16.2%15.7%15.7%3.5%3.5%3.5%

9、3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%2,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.611.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%11.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.7336322預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2014年2015年2016年2017年26.0

10、26.026.026.00.70.70.70.74,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.82.02.00.00.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.220.220.220.222.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.8100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.160.160.160.1610,000.010,000.02,000.02,000.01,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.30.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%3,000.02,000.0

11、(7,000.0)(7,000.0)1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%0.00.00.00.00.000.000.000.007.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.91.91.91.91.9%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.01.01.01.057.657.657.657.625.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%1.881.861.841.826.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%266.1266.1266.1266.17.6%7.4%7.2%7.0%15.7%15.7%15.7%15.7%3.5%3.5%3.

12、5%3.5%2,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.611.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%11.733632211.733632211.733632211.7336322電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)收收入入預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年三三峽峽機(jī)機(jī)組組三峽總投產(chǎn)機(jī)組數(shù)（臺(tái)）14.014.020.0單機(jī)組裝機(jī)容量（百萬(wàn)千瓦）0.70.7平均總裝機(jī)容量（百萬(wàn)千瓦）9.811.9年發(fā)電小時(shí)數(shù)（小時(shí)）5

13、,404.85,404.8發(fā)電量（百萬(wàn)度）52,966.764,316.7已收購(gòu)機(jī)組數(shù)（臺(tái)）6.06.08.0分電比例42.9%41.2%權(quán)益發(fā)電量（百萬(wàn)度）22,700.026,483.3上網(wǎng)率100.0%100.0%上網(wǎng)電量（百萬(wàn)度）22,700.026,483.3平均上網(wǎng)電價(jià)（不含稅，元/度）0.220.22電電費(fèi)費(fèi)收收入入（百百萬(wàn)萬(wàn)元元）5,063.85,907.8葛葛洲洲壩壩機(jī)機(jī)組組總裝機(jī)容量（百萬(wàn)千瓦）2.72.72.7年發(fā)電小時(shí)數(shù)（小時(shí)）5,672.26,187.8發(fā)電量（百萬(wàn)度）15,400.016,800.0平均上網(wǎng)率100.0%100.0%上網(wǎng)電量（百萬(wàn)度）15,400.0

14、16,800.0平均上網(wǎng)電價(jià)（不含稅，元/度）0.160.16電電費(fèi)費(fèi)收收入入（百百萬(wàn)萬(wàn)元元）2,441.92,663.9主主營(yíng)營(yíng)業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)務(wù)收收入入（百百萬(wàn)萬(wàn)元元）7,505.88,571.7預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年26.026.026.026.026.026.026.00.70.70.70.70.70.70.716.118.218.218.218.218.218.24,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.874,926.984,700.084,700.084,700

15、.084,700.084,700.084,700.011.014.016.018.020.022.024.041.3%48.1%57.7%65.4%73.1%80.8%88.5%30,948.140,721.248,865.455,380.861,896.268,411.574,926.9100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%30,948.140,721.248,865.455,380.861,896.268,411.574,926.90.220.220.220.220.220.220.226,903.89,084.010,900.712,354.

16、213,807.615,261.016,714.52.72.72.72.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.816,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%16,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.00.160.160.160.160.160.160.162,663.92,663.92,663.92,

17、663.92,663.92,663.92,663.99,567.711,747.913,564.615,018.116,471.517,924.919,378.4電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年26.026.026.00.70.70.718.218.218.24,653.84,653.84,653.884,700.084,700.084,700.026.026.026.096.2%100.0%100.0%81,442.384,700.084,700.0100.0%100.0%100.0%81,442.384,700.084,700.

18、00.220.220.2218,167.918,894.618,894.62.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.816,800.016,800.016,800.0100.0%100.0%100.0%16,800.016,800.016,800.00.160.160.162,663.92,663.92,663.920,831.821,558.521,558.5電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年折折舊舊資本性支出3,000.010,000.012

19、折舊年限（年）28.03.6%3.6%年份資本性支出2006年3,000.01107.1107.12007年10,000.02357.12008年15,000.032009年10,000.042010年10,000.052011年10,000.062012年10,000.072013年10,000.082014年10,000.092015年10,000.0102016年2,000.0112017年2,000.012新增固定資產(chǎn)折舊107.1464.3已存固定資產(chǎn)折舊1,219.31,219.3折折舊舊1,326.41,683.5固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)凈凈值值期初值34,510.736,184.3資本

20、性支出3,000.010,000.0折舊1,326.41,683.5期末值34,510.736,184.344,500.7預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年15,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.034567893.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1535.7535.7535.7535.7535.7535.

21、7535.7357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.11,000.01,357.11,714.32,071.42,428.62,785.73,142.91,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.32,219.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.144,500.757,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984

22、,833.090,828.015,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.02,219.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.157,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984,833.090,828.096,465.9電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年10,000.02,000.02,000.01011123.6%3.6%3.6%107.1107.1107.1357.1357.1357.1535.7535

23、.7535.7357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.171.471.471.43,500.03,571.43,642.91,219.31,219.31,219.34,719.34,790.74,862.196,465.9101,746.798,956.010,000.02,000.02,000.04,719.34,790.74,862.1101,746.798,956.096,093.9電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估

24、值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)融融資資計(jì)計(jì)劃劃2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年債債務(wù)務(wù)融融資資融資缺口0.00.00.0循環(huán)貸款利率5.6%5.6%循環(huán)貸款利息費(fèi)用0.00.0短期借款80.080.080.0短期借款利率5.6%5.6%短期借款利息費(fèi)用4.54.5長(zhǎng)期借款14,875.815,875.815,875.8長(zhǎng)期借款利率6.3%6.3%長(zhǎng)期借款利息費(fèi)用968.71,000.2債債務(wù)務(wù)合合計(jì)計(jì)14,955.815,955.815,955.8利利息息費(fèi)費(fèi)用用合合計(jì)計(jì)973.11,004.6貨幣資金670.41,182.11,412.5貨幣

25、資金利率1.8%1.8%貨幣資金利息收入16.723.4財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)費(fèi)費(fèi)用用956.5981.3股股權(quán)權(quán)融融資資新股發(fā)行數(shù)量0.01,228.0已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.78,186.79,414.7新股價(jià)格（元）0.005.50普通股18,385.218,385.225,139.3重重要要指指標(biāo)標(biāo)資本負(fù)債率40.1%33.1%每股盈利（元/股）0.410.41預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08

26、0.080.080.080.080.080.080.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%4.54.54.54.54.54.54.526,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.86.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%1,346.71,882.22,228.72,543.72,827.23,047.73,236.726,955.832,955.837,955.842,955.846,955.849,955.852,955.81,351.11,886.62,233.12,548.12,831.6

27、3,052.13,241.11,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.21.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%24.231.747.165.988.0103.9122.31,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.09,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.70.000.000.000.000.000.000.0025,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.3

28、25,139.325,139.325,139.344.0%47.3%48.9%50.2%50.5%50.1%49.7%0.460.560.650.710.780.840.92電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年0.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%0.00.00.080.080.080.05.6%5.6%5.6%4.54.54.554,875.847,875.840,875.86.3%6.3%6.3%3,394.23,236.72,795.754,955.847,955.840,955.83,398.63,241.12,800.18

29、,524.98,994.79,675.61.8%1.8%1.8%144.0157.7168.03,254.63,083.52,632.10.00.00.09,414.79,414.79,414.70.000.000.0025,139.325,139.325,139.348.7%43.4%37.9%0.991.051.08電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)中中間間計(jì)計(jì)算算2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年無(wú)無(wú)形形資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)期初值15.014.0攤銷1.01.0期末值15.014.013.0留留存存收收益益期初值3,

30、841.85,403.7凈利潤(rùn)3,391.93,844.0紅利1,829.92,073.8期末值3,841.85,403.77,173.9營(yíng)營(yíng)運(yùn)運(yùn)資資金金應(yīng)收票據(jù)49.7745.8833.2應(yīng)收賬款1,389.11,353.71,546.0其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)263.2280.5320.3應(yīng)付賬款637.5951.21,086.2應(yīng)交稅金1,194.51,169.41,325.3其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債342.0353.7403.9營(yíng)營(yíng)運(yùn)運(yùn)資資金金(472.0)(94.3)(116.0)696.1677.9(35.4)17.3300.2313.6(25.1)377.711.7預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年

31、2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年13.012.011.010.09.08.07.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.07,173.99,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.74,377.15,309.36,124.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.22,361.42,864.33,303.93,614.43,939.34,287.44,649.59,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.72

32、8,530.4909.31,091.11,230.61,330.01,423.11,510.01,590.61,674.02,055.42,373.32,627.62,792.93,039.43,285.8357.5439.0506.9561.2615.5669.8724.11,212.51,488.71,719.01,903.12,087.32,271.52,455.71,021.31,238.81,428.91,563.21,703.71,854.32,010.9450.9553.6639.2707.7776.2844.7913.2256.2304.4323.6344.7264.3248.

33、7220.7電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年6.05.04.01.01.01.05.04.03.028,530.432,820.437,391.69,316.09,926.510,214.95,026.05,355.45,511.032,820.437,391.642,095.61,664.91,676.41,629.83,532.23,655.53,655.5778.4805.6805.62,639.92,732.02,732.02,173.72,316.22,383.5981.71,015.91,015.9180.373.4(4

34、0.5)電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)損損益益表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年收收入入主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入2,985.86,174.07,259.57,505.88,571.7補(bǔ)貼收入261.7542.0561.3577.9660.0其他業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)13.118.118.022.525.7總總營(yíng)營(yíng)業(yè)業(yè)收收入入3,260.76,734.17,838.88,106.29,257.5成成本本及及費(fèi)費(fèi)用用主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)稅金及附加48.492.4107.7112.6128.6主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本403.0596.1597.5532.85

35、87.1營(yíng)業(yè)費(fèi)用1.81.81.91.91.9管理費(fèi)用98.3142.3166.9170.2194.4EBITDA 2,709.25,901.56,964.77,288.78,345.5折舊477.6952.51,219.31,326.41,683.5攤銷0.51.11.01.0EBIT4,948.55,744.45,961.36,660.9其他收入和費(fèi)用8.35.657.657.657.6財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用94.9419.0828.9956.5981.3利利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)總總額額2,622.54,535.14,973.15,062.55,737.3所得稅707.41,496.11,634.41,670.61,8

36、93.3凈凈利利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)1,915.23,039.03,338.73,391.93,844.0股股東東信信息息已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.78,186.79,414.7每每股股盈盈利利（元元/股股）0.410.410.41紅利3,016.71,829.92,073.8每每股股紅紅利利（元元/股股）0.370.220.22預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年9,567.711,747.913,564.615,018.116,471.517,924.919,378.4736.7904.61,044.51,156.41,268.31,380.2

37、1,492.128.735.240.745.149.453.858.110,333.112,687.714,649.816,219.517,789.219,358.920,928.6143.5176.2203.5225.3247.1268.9290.7655.3804.7929.11,028.71,128.21,227.81,327.31.91.91.91.91.91.91.9206.7251.2287.1314.7341.6367.8393.59,325.711,453.713,228.214,649.016,070.517,492.618,915.32,219.32,576.42,933.

38、53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.07,105.48,876.310,293.711,357.312,421.713,486.614,552.257.657.657.657.657.657.657.61,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.85,836.17,079.08,165.38,932.89,735.610,596.011,491.01,459.01,769.82,041.32,233.22,433.92,649.02,872.74,377.15,309.36,124

39、.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.29,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.70.460.560.650.710.780.840.922,361.42,864.33,303.93,614.43,939.34,287.44,649.50.250.300.350.380.420.460.49電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年20,831.821,558.521,558.51,604.01,660.01,660.062.564.764.722,498.323,2

40、83.223,283.2312.5323.4323.41,426.91,476.61,476.61.91.91.9418.5428.4423.820,338.621,052.921,057.54,719.34,790.74,862.11.01.01.015,618.416,261.216,194.457.657.657.63,254.63,083.52,632.112,421.413,235.313,619.93,105.33,308.83,405.09,316.09,926.510,214.99,414.79,414.79,414.70.991.051.085,026.05,355.45,5

41、11.00.530.570.59電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負(fù)負(fù)債債表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)貨幣資金1,080.72,171.2670.41,182.11,412.5短期投資291.8722.5266.1266.1266.1應(yīng)收票據(jù)408.5621.849.7745.8833.2應(yīng)收賬款1,148.21,462.81,389.11,353.71,546.0其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)84.2239.9263.2280.5320.3流流動(dòng)動(dòng)資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)合合計(jì)計(jì)3,013.45,218.12,638

42、.63,828.14,378.1長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資179.92,175.02,192.62,192.62,192.6固定資產(chǎn)凈值26,414.725,730.334,510.736,184.344,500.7無(wú)形資產(chǎn)8.510.815.014.013.0資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)總總計(jì)計(jì)29,616.633,134.239,356.842,219.051,084.4負(fù)負(fù)債債和和股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益融資缺口0.00.00.00.00.0短期借款50.0160.080.080.080.0應(yīng)付賬款302.21,198.7637.5951.21,086.2應(yīng)交稅金461.51,108.81,194.51,169.41,325.3

43、其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債415.0398.6342.0353.7403.9流流動(dòng)動(dòng)負(fù)負(fù)債債合合計(jì)計(jì)1,228.72,866.12,254.12,554.32,895.5長(zhǎng)期借款8,561.18,363.114,875.815,875.815,875.8負(fù)負(fù)債債合合計(jì)計(jì)9,789.811,229.317,129.818,430.118,771.2普通股18,385.218,385.218,385.218,385.225,139.3留存收益1,441.63,519.83,841.85,403.77,173.9股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益合合計(jì)計(jì)19,826.821,905.022,227.023,788.932,313.

44、1負(fù)負(fù)債債和和股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益總總計(jì)計(jì)29,616.633,134.239,356.842,219.051,084.4平平衡衡嗎嗎？OKOKOKOKOK預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年1,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1909.31,091.11,230.61,330.01,423.11,510.01,590.61,674.02,055.42,373.32,627.62,792.93,039.43,

45、285.8357.5439.0506.9561.2615.5669.8724.14,483.16,102.07,362.59,126.410,530.811,599.613,340.72,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.657,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984,833.090,828.096,465.912.011.010.09.08.07.06.063,969.273,010.681,336.689,808.897,564.4104,627.2112,005.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

46、80.080.080.080.080.080.080.01,212.51,488.71,719.01,903.12,087.32,271.52,455.71,021.31,238.81,428.91,563.21,703.71,854.32,010.9450.9553.6639.2707.7776.2844.7913.22,764.63,361.13,867.14,254.14,647.25,050.55,459.826,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.829,640.436,236.941,742.947,129.851

47、,523.054,926.358,335.525,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.39,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.728,530.434,328.836,773.739,593.842,678.946,041.449,701.053,669.763,969.273,010.681,336.689,808.897,564.4104,627.2112,005.2OKOKOKOKOKOKOK電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年20

48、16年2017年8,524.98,994.79,675.6266.1266.1266.11,664.91,676.41,629.83,532.23,655.53,655.5778.4805.6805.614,766.515,398.116,032.62,192.62,192.62,192.6101,746.798,956.096,093.95.04.03.0118,710.7116,550.7114,322.00.00.00.080.080.080.02,639.92,732.02,732.02,173.72,316.22,383.5981.71,015.91,015.95,875.36,14

49、4.16,211.454,875.847,875.840,875.860,751.054,019.847,087.125,139.325,139.325,139.332,820.437,391.642,095.657,959.762,530.967,234.8118,710.7116,550.7114,322.0OKOKOK電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年經(jīng)經(jīng)營(yíng)營(yíng)活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流凈凈利利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)3,391.93,844.0（其他收入和費(fèi)用）(57.6)(5

50、7.6)+折舊1,326.41,683.5+攤銷1.01.0營(yíng)運(yùn)資金減少（增加）(377.7)21.7經(jīng)經(jīng)營(yíng)營(yíng)活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計(jì)計(jì)4,283.95,492.6投投資資活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流其他收入和費(fèi)用57.657.6（資本性支出）(3,000.0)(10,000.0)短期投資減少（增加）0.00.0長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資減少（增加）0.00.0投投資資活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計(jì)計(jì)(2,942.4)(9,942.4)融融資資活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流短期借款增加（減少）0.00.0長(zhǎng)期借款增加（減少）1,000.00.0普通股增加（減少）0.06,754.1（紅利）(1,829.9)(2,073.8)融

51、融資資活活動(dòng)動(dòng)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計(jì)計(jì)(829.9)4,680.2期初現(xiàn)金額670.41,182.1凈現(xiàn)金流511.6230.4融資缺口前的期末現(xiàn)金額670.41,182.11,412.5現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金分分配配所需現(xiàn)金486.4555.4多余現(xiàn)金695.7857.1融資缺口0.00.0年底現(xiàn)金1,182.11,412.5預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年4,377.15,309.36,124.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.2(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)2,21

52、9.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.0(372.2)(48.2)(19.3)(21.0)80.415.628.06,167.67,780.88,981.69,912.610,973.311,911.012,951.757.657.657.657.657.657.657.6(15,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(14,9

53、42.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.011,000.06,000.05,000.05,000.04,000.03,000.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(2,361.4)(2,864.3)(3,303.9)(3,614.4)(3,939.3)(4,287.4)(4,649.5)8,638.63,135.71,696.11,385.660.7(1,287.4)(1,649.5)1,412.51,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65

54、,433.26,114.4(136.2)974.1735.41,355.81,091.7681.21,359.81,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2620.0761.3879.0973.21,067.41,161.51,255.7656.31,489.12,106.83,368.44,365.94,952.96,218.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.01,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年

55、2016年2017年9,316.09,926.510,214.9(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)4,719.34,790.74,862.11.01.01.040.4106.9113.914,019.114,767.515,134.357.657.657.6(10,000.0)(2,000.0)(2,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.0(9,942.4)(1,942.4)(1,942.4)0.00.00.02,000.0(7,000.0)(7,000.0)0.00.00.0(5,026.0)(5,355.4)(5,511.0)(3,026.0)(12,355.4)(12,511.

56、0)7,474.28,524.98,994.71,050.7469.7681.08,524.98,994.79,675.61,349.91,397.01,397.07,175.07,597.78,278.60.00.00.08,524.98,994.79,675.6電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)比比例例2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年關(guān)關(guān)鍵鍵數(shù)數(shù)字字營(yíng)業(yè)收入6,734.17,838.88,106.29,257.5EBITDA5,901.56,964.77,288.78,345.5EBIT4,948.55,

57、744.45,961.36,660.9所得稅率33.0%32.9%33.0%33.0%EBIAT3,316.03,856.53,994.14,462.8財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用419.0828.9956.5981.3融資缺口0.00.00.00.0短期借款160.080.080.080.0長(zhǎng)期借款8,363.114,875.815,875.815,875.8股東權(quán)益21,905.022,227.023,788.932,313.1盈盈利利性性營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率16.4%3.4%14.2%EBITDA/營(yíng)業(yè)收入88.8%89.9%90.1%EBIT/營(yíng)業(yè)收入73.3%73.5%72.0%凈資產(chǎn)收益率15.0%14.3

58、%11.9%凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資產(chǎn)30,428.137,182.739,744.748,268.9凈營(yíng)運(yùn)資產(chǎn)增加額6,754.62,562.08,524.2EBIAT的增加額540.5137.6468.7新投資的回報(bào)率8.0%5.4%5.5%預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年10,333.112,687.714,649.816,219.517,789.219,358.920,928.69,325.711,453.713,228.214,649.016,070.517,492.618,915.37,105.48,876.310,293.711,

59、357.312,421.713,486.614,552.225.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%5,329.16,657.27,720.28,518.09,316.210,114.910,914.11,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.026,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.834,328.836,773.739,593.842,678.

60、946,041.449,701.053,669.711.6%22.8%15.5%10.7%9.7%8.8%8.1%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.4%90.4%68.8%70.0%70.3%70.0%69.8%69.7%69.5%12.8%14.4%15.5%15.7%15.9%16.0%16.1%61,284.669,729.577,549.585,634.792,997.299,656.8106,625.413,015.78,444.97,820.18,085.27,362.46,659.66,968.7866.31,328.11,063.0797.8798.279

61、8.7799.26.7%15.7%13.6%9.9%10.8%12.0%11.5%電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年22,498.323,283.223,283.220,338.621,052.921,057.515,618.416,261.216,194.425.0%25.0%25.0%11,713.812,195.912,145.83,254.63,083.52,632.10.00.00.080.080.080.054,875.847,875.840,875.857,959.762,530.967,234.87.5%3.5%0.0

62、%90.4%90.4%90.4%69.4%69.8%69.6%16.1%15.9%15.2%112,915.5110,486.6108,190.66,290.0(2,428.8)(2,296.0)799.6482.1(50.1)12.7%-19.8%2.2%電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說(shuō)明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬(wàn)歷史歷史歷史預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)折折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流模模型型2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年加加權(quán)權(quán)平平均均資資本本成成本本（WACC）稅前債權(quán)成本6.2%稅率33.0%無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率3.0%市場(chǎng)收益率13.5%BETA系數(shù)0.8目標(biāo)股權(quán)比例70.6%目標(biāo)債

63、權(quán)比例29.4%稅后債權(quán)成本4.2%股權(quán)成本11.4%CAPMWACC9.3%自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流EBIT5,961.36,660.9（所得稅）(1,967.2)(2,198.1)EBIAT3,994.14,462.8+折舊1,326.41,683.5+攤銷1.01.0營(yíng)運(yùn)資金減少（增加）(377.7)21.7（資本性支出）(3,000.0)(10,000.0)無(wú)無(wú)杠杠桿桿自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計(jì)計(jì)1,943.8(3,831.0)折折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流模模型型EBITDA退出倍數(shù)8終值計(jì)算折現(xiàn)年份0.51.5折現(xiàn)因子0.960.88現(xiàn)值1,859.5(3,354.0)預(yù)測(cè)期現(xiàn)金流總和13,69

64、8.5終值的現(xiàn)值60,778.7企企業(yè)業(yè)價(jià)價(jià)值值（EV）74,477.1貨幣資金670.4短期投資266.1長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資2,192.6資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)價(jià)價(jià)值值77,606.2債務(wù)合計(jì)14,955.8內(nèi)內(nèi)含含股股權(quán)權(quán)價(jià)價(jià)值值62,650.5已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.7內(nèi)內(nèi)含含股股價(jià)價(jià)7.65敏敏感感性性分分析析wacc7.658.67%8.87%9.07%9.27%9.47%ex6.5 x7.657.657.657.657.657.0 x7.657.657.657.657.657.5 x7.657.657.657.657.658.0 x7.657.657.657.657.658.5 x7.657.657

65、.657.657.659.0 x7.657.657.657.657.659.5 x7.657.657.657.657.65預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年7,105.48,876.310,293.711,357.312,421.713,486.614,552.2(1,776.4)(2,219.1)(2,573.4)(2,839.3)(3,105.4)(3,371.6)(3,638.0)5,329.16,657.27,720.28,518.09,316.210,114.910,914.12,219.32,576.42,933.53

66、,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.0(372.2)(48.2)(19.3)(21.0)80.415.628.0(15,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(7,822.8)(813.6)635.51,788.73,045.54,136.65,305.22.53.54.55.56.57.58.50.800.730.670.610.560.510.47(6,267.8)(596.6)426.51,098.51,711.62,127.62,497.2電電力力公公司司財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與與估估值值模模型型9.67%9.87%7.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.65預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)2015年2016年2017年15,618.416,261.216,194.4(3,904.6)(4,065.3)(4,048.6)11,713.812,195.912,145.84,719.34,7