電力公司財務預測與估值模型

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1、電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型分分析析員員在此填寫您的姓名會會計計年年度度末末電電話話電話號碼貨貨幣幣模模型型制制作作日日期期2005/12/31數(shù)數(shù)量量單單位位說說明明=輸入數(shù)字假設，可以變動。11.4=歷史或給定數(shù)字，不能變動。11.4=公式，不能變動。=批注，建模的提示。12月31日人民幣百萬電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型目目錄錄工作表名稱1財務預測假設Input收入預測Revenue固定資產(chǎn)PP&E融資計劃Financing中間計算Cal損益表IS資產(chǎn)負債表BS現(xiàn)金流量表CFS2估值模型比例

2、Ratios折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流模型DCF可比公司法Comps電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測假假設設2003年2004年2005年2006年收收入入預預測測三峽總投產(chǎn)機組數(shù)（臺）14.014.0三峽單機組裝機容量（百萬千瓦）0.70.7三峽機組年發(fā)電小時數(shù)（小時）5,508.85,404.8新收購三峽機組數(shù)（臺/年）0.0三峽機組上網(wǎng)率100.0%三峽機組平均上網(wǎng)電價（不含稅，元/度）0.210.22葛洲壩機組總裝機容量（百萬千瓦）2.72.7葛洲壩機組年發(fā)電小時數(shù)（小時）6,003.

3、75,672.2葛洲壩平均上網(wǎng)率100.0%葛洲壩機組平均上網(wǎng)電價（不含稅，元/度）0.140.16固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)資本性支出9,988.63,000.0已存固定資產(chǎn)折舊1,219.3融融資資計計劃劃短期借款發(fā)行（償還）0.0循環(huán)貸款及短期借款利率5.6%長期借款利率6.3%長期借款發(fā)行（償還）1,000.0貨幣資金利率1.8%新股發(fā)行數(shù)量0.0新股發(fā)行價格（元）0.00損損益益表表補貼收入/主營業(yè)務收入8.8%8.8%7.7%7.7%其他業(yè)務利潤/主營業(yè)務收入0.4%0.3%0.2%0.3%主營業(yè)務稅金及附加/主營業(yè)務收入1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%主營業(yè)務成本/主營業(yè)務收入12.4%8

4、.9%7.6%7.1%營業(yè)費用1.81.81.91.9管理費用/總營業(yè)收入3.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%攤銷1.0其他收入和費用8.35.657.657.6所得稅率27.0%33.0%32.9%33.0%1003.022.112.132.10資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負負債債表表所需資金/總營業(yè)收入6.0%短期投資266.1266.1應收票據(jù)/總營業(yè)收入12.5%9.2%0.6%9.2%應收帳款/總營業(yè)收入35.2%21.7%17.7%16.7%其他流動資產(chǎn)/總營業(yè)收入2.6%3.6%3.4%3.5%長期股權(quán)投資2,192.62,192.6應付帳款/總營業(yè)收入9.3%17.8%8.1%11.7%應交稅金/所得

5、稅65.2%74.1%73.1%70.0%其他流動負債/總營業(yè)收入12.7%5.9%4.4%4.4%紅利/當年凈利潤54.0%10011.7336322預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2007年2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年20.026.026.026.026.026.026.00.70.70.70.70.70.70.75,404.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.82.03.03.02.02.02.02.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.220.220.220.

6、220.220.220.222.72.72.72.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.8100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.160.160.160.160.160.160.1610,000.015,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.01,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%

7、5.6%5.6%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%0.011,000.06,000.05,000.05,000.04,000.03,000.01.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1,228.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.500.000.000.000.000.000.007.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.91.91.91.91.91.91.92.1%

8、2.0%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.01.01.01.01.01.01.057.657.657.657.657.657.657.633.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%2.102.001.981.961.941.921.906.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型9.0%8.8%8.6%8.4%8.2%8.0%7.8%16.7%16.2%16.2%16.2%16.2%15.7%15.7%3.5%3.5%3.5%

9、3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%2,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.611.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%11.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.733632211.7336322預測預測預測預測2014年2015年2016年2017年26.0

10、26.026.026.00.70.70.70.74,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.82.02.00.00.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.220.220.220.222.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.8100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%0.160.160.160.1610,000.010,000.02,000.02,000.01,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.30.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%3,000.02,000.0

11、(7,000.0)(7,000.0)1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%0.00.00.00.00.000.000.000.007.7%7.7%7.7%7.7%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.91.91.91.91.9%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.01.01.01.057.657.657.657.625.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%1.881.861.841.826.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%266.1266.1266.1266.17.6%7.4%7.2%7.0%15.7%15.7%15.7%15.7%3.5%3.5%3.

12、5%3.5%2,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.611.7%11.7%11.7%11.7%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%54.0%54.0%54.0%54.0%11.733632211.733632211.733632211.7336322電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型歷史歷史歷史預測預測收收入入預預測測2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年三三峽峽機機組組三峽總投產(chǎn)機組數(shù)（臺）14.014.020.0單機組裝機容量（百萬千瓦）0.70.7平均總裝機容量（百萬千瓦）9.811.9年發(fā)電小時數(shù)（小時）5

13、,404.85,404.8發(fā)電量（百萬度）52,966.764,316.7已收購機組數(shù)（臺）6.06.08.0分電比例42.9%41.2%權(quán)益發(fā)電量（百萬度）22,700.026,483.3上網(wǎng)率100.0%100.0%上網(wǎng)電量（百萬度）22,700.026,483.3平均上網(wǎng)電價（不含稅，元/度）0.220.22電電費費收收入入（百百萬萬元元）5,063.85,907.8葛葛洲洲壩壩機機組組總裝機容量（百萬千瓦）2.72.72.7年發(fā)電小時數(shù)（小時）5,672.26,187.8發(fā)電量（百萬度）15,400.016,800.0平均上網(wǎng)率100.0%100.0%上網(wǎng)電量（百萬度）15,400.0

14、16,800.0平均上網(wǎng)電價（不含稅，元/度）0.160.16電電費費收收入入（百百萬萬元元）2,441.92,663.9主主營營業(yè)業(yè)務務收收入入（百百萬萬元元）7,505.88,571.7預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年26.026.026.026.026.026.026.00.70.70.70.70.70.70.716.118.218.218.218.218.218.24,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.84,653.874,926.984,700.084,700.084,700

15、.084,700.084,700.084,700.011.014.016.018.020.022.024.041.3%48.1%57.7%65.4%73.1%80.8%88.5%30,948.140,721.248,865.455,380.861,896.268,411.574,926.9100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%30,948.140,721.248,865.455,380.861,896.268,411.574,926.90.220.220.220.220.220.220.226,903.89,084.010,900.712,354.

16、213,807.615,261.016,714.52.72.72.72.72.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.86,187.816,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%16,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.016,800.00.160.160.160.160.160.160.162,663.92,663.92,663.92,

17、663.92,663.92,663.92,663.99,567.711,747.913,564.615,018.116,471.517,924.919,378.4電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年26.026.026.00.70.70.718.218.218.24,653.84,653.84,653.884,700.084,700.084,700.026.026.026.096.2%100.0%100.0%81,442.384,700.084,700.0100.0%100.0%100.0%81,442.384,700.084,700.

18、00.220.220.2218,167.918,894.618,894.62.72.72.76,187.86,187.86,187.816,800.016,800.016,800.0100.0%100.0%100.0%16,800.016,800.016,800.00.160.160.162,663.92,663.92,663.920,831.821,558.521,558.5電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年折折舊舊資本性支出3,000.010,000.012

19、折舊年限（年）28.03.6%3.6%年份資本性支出2006年3,000.01107.1107.12007年10,000.02357.12008年15,000.032009年10,000.042010年10,000.052011年10,000.062012年10,000.072013年10,000.082014年10,000.092015年10,000.0102016年2,000.0112017年2,000.012新增固定資產(chǎn)折舊107.1464.3已存固定資產(chǎn)折舊1,219.31,219.3折折舊舊1,326.41,683.5固固定定資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)凈凈值值期初值34,510.736,184.3資本

20、性支出3,000.010,000.0折舊1,326.41,683.5期末值34,510.736,184.344,500.7預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年15,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.034567893.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1107.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1535.7535.7535.7535.7535.7535.

21、7535.7357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.11,000.01,357.11,714.32,071.42,428.62,785.73,142.91,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.31,219.32,219.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.144,500.757,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984

22、,833.090,828.015,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.010,000.02,219.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.157,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984,833.090,828.096,465.9電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年10,000.02,000.02,000.01011123.6%3.6%3.6%107.1107.1107.1357.1357.1357.1535.7535

23、.7535.7357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.1357.171.471.471.43,500.03,571.43,642.91,219.31,219.31,219.34,719.34,790.74,862.196,465.9101,746.798,956.010,000.02,000.02,000.04,719.34,790.74,862.1101,746.798,956.096,093.9電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估

24、值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測融融資資計計劃劃2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年債債務務融融資資融資缺口0.00.00.0循環(huán)貸款利率5.6%5.6%循環(huán)貸款利息費用0.00.0短期借款80.080.080.0短期借款利率5.6%5.6%短期借款利息費用4.54.5長期借款14,875.815,875.815,875.8長期借款利率6.3%6.3%長期借款利息費用968.71,000.2債債務務合合計計14,955.815,955.815,955.8利利息息費費用用合合計計973.11,004.6貨幣資金670.41,182.11,412.5貨幣

25、資金利率1.8%1.8%貨幣資金利息收入16.723.4財財務務費費用用956.5981.3股股權(quán)權(quán)融融資資新股發(fā)行數(shù)量0.01,228.0已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.78,186.79,414.7新股價格（元）0.005.50普通股18,385.218,385.225,139.3重重要要指指標標資本負債率40.1%33.1%每股盈利（元/股）0.410.41預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08

26、0.080.080.080.080.080.080.05.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%5.6%4.54.54.54.54.54.54.526,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.86.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%1,346.71,882.22,228.72,543.72,827.23,047.73,236.726,955.832,955.837,955.842,955.846,955.849,955.852,955.81,351.11,886.62,233.12,548.12,831.6

27、3,052.13,241.11,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.21.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%24.231.747.165.988.0103.9122.31,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.09,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.70.000.000.000.000.000.000.0025,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.3

28、25,139.325,139.325,139.344.0%47.3%48.9%50.2%50.5%50.1%49.7%0.460.560.650.710.780.840.92電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年0.00.00.05.6%5.6%5.6%0.00.00.080.080.080.05.6%5.6%5.6%4.54.54.554,875.847,875.840,875.86.3%6.3%6.3%3,394.23,236.72,795.754,955.847,955.840,955.83,398.63,241.12,800.18

29、,524.98,994.79,675.61.8%1.8%1.8%144.0157.7168.03,254.63,083.52,632.10.00.00.09,414.79,414.79,414.70.000.000.0025,139.325,139.325,139.348.7%43.4%37.9%0.991.051.08電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測中中間間計計算算2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年無無形形資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)期初值15.014.0攤銷1.01.0期末值15.014.013.0留留存存收收益益期初值3,

30、841.85,403.7凈利潤3,391.93,844.0紅利1,829.92,073.8期末值3,841.85,403.77,173.9營營運運資資金金應收票據(jù)49.7745.8833.2應收賬款1,389.11,353.71,546.0其他流動資產(chǎn)263.2280.5320.3應付賬款637.5951.21,086.2應交稅金1,194.51,169.41,325.3其他流動負債342.0353.7403.9營營運運資資金金(472.0)(94.3)(116.0)696.1677.9(35.4)17.3300.2313.6(25.1)377.711.7預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年

31、2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年13.012.011.010.09.08.07.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.012.011.010.09.08.07.06.07,173.99,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.74,377.15,309.36,124.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.22,361.42,864.33,303.93,614.43,939.34,287.44,649.59,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.72

32、8,530.4909.31,091.11,230.61,330.01,423.11,510.01,590.61,674.02,055.42,373.32,627.62,792.93,039.43,285.8357.5439.0506.9561.2615.5669.8724.11,212.51,488.71,719.01,903.12,087.32,271.52,455.71,021.31,238.81,428.91,563.21,703.71,854.32,010.9450.9553.6639.2707.7776.2844.7913.2256.2304.4323.6344.7264.3248.

33、7220.7電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年6.05.04.01.01.01.05.04.03.028,530.432,820.437,391.69,316.09,926.510,214.95,026.05,355.45,511.032,820.437,391.642,095.61,664.91,676.41,629.83,532.23,655.53,655.5778.4805.6805.62,639.92,732.02,732.02,173.72,316.22,383.5981.71,015.91,015.9180.373.4(4

34、0.5)電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測損損益益表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年收收入入主營業(yè)務收入2,985.86,174.07,259.57,505.88,571.7補貼收入261.7542.0561.3577.9660.0其他業(yè)務利潤13.118.118.022.525.7總總營營業(yè)業(yè)收收入入3,260.76,734.17,838.88,106.29,257.5成成本本及及費費用用主營業(yè)務稅金及附加48.492.4107.7112.6128.6主營業(yè)務成本403.0596.1597.5532.85

35、87.1營業(yè)費用1.81.81.91.91.9管理費用98.3142.3166.9170.2194.4EBITDA 2,709.25,901.56,964.77,288.78,345.5折舊477.6952.51,219.31,326.41,683.5攤銷0.51.11.01.0EBIT4,948.55,744.45,961.36,660.9其他收入和費用8.35.657.657.657.6財務費用94.9419.0828.9956.5981.3利利潤潤總總額額2,622.54,535.14,973.15,062.55,737.3所得稅707.41,496.11,634.41,670.61,8

36、93.3凈凈利利潤潤1,915.23,039.03,338.73,391.93,844.0股股東東信信息息已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.78,186.79,414.7每每股股盈盈利利（元元/股股）0.410.410.41紅利3,016.71,829.92,073.8每每股股紅紅利利（元元/股股）0.370.220.22預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年9,567.711,747.913,564.615,018.116,471.517,924.919,378.4736.7904.61,044.51,156.41,268.31,380.2

37、1,492.128.735.240.745.149.453.858.110,333.112,687.714,649.816,219.517,789.219,358.920,928.6143.5176.2203.5225.3247.1268.9290.7655.3804.7929.11,028.71,128.21,227.81,327.31.91.91.91.91.91.91.9206.7251.2287.1314.7341.6367.8393.59,325.711,453.713,228.214,649.016,070.517,492.618,915.32,219.32,576.42,933.

38、53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.07,105.48,876.310,293.711,357.312,421.713,486.614,552.257.657.657.657.657.657.657.61,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.85,836.17,079.08,165.38,932.89,735.610,596.011,491.01,459.01,769.82,041.32,233.22,433.92,649.02,872.74,377.15,309.36,124

39、.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.29,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.79,414.70.460.560.650.710.780.840.922,361.42,864.33,303.93,614.43,939.34,287.44,649.50.250.300.350.380.420.460.49電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年20,831.821,558.521,558.51,604.01,660.01,660.062.564.764.722,498.323,2

40、83.223,283.2312.5323.4323.41,426.91,476.61,476.61.91.91.9418.5428.4423.820,338.621,052.921,057.54,719.34,790.74,862.11.01.01.015,618.416,261.216,194.457.657.657.63,254.63,083.52,632.112,421.413,235.313,619.93,105.33,308.83,405.09,316.09,926.510,214.99,414.79,414.79,414.70.991.051.085,026.05,355.45,5

41、11.00.530.570.59電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)負負債債表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)貨幣資金1,080.72,171.2670.41,182.11,412.5短期投資291.8722.5266.1266.1266.1應收票據(jù)408.5621.849.7745.8833.2應收賬款1,148.21,462.81,389.11,353.71,546.0其他流動資產(chǎn)84.2239.9263.2280.5320.3流流動動資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)合合計計3,013.45,218.12,638

42、.63,828.14,378.1長期股權(quán)投資179.92,175.02,192.62,192.62,192.6固定資產(chǎn)凈值26,414.725,730.334,510.736,184.344,500.7無形資產(chǎn)8.510.815.014.013.0資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)總總計計29,616.633,134.239,356.842,219.051,084.4負負債債和和股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益融資缺口0.00.00.00.00.0短期借款50.0160.080.080.080.0應付賬款302.21,198.7637.5951.21,086.2應交稅金461.51,108.81,194.51,169.41,325.3

43、其他流動負債415.0398.6342.0353.7403.9流流動動負負債債合合計計1,228.72,866.12,254.12,554.32,895.5長期借款8,561.18,363.114,875.815,875.815,875.8負負債債合合計計9,789.811,229.317,129.818,430.118,771.2普通股18,385.218,385.218,385.218,385.225,139.3留存收益1,441.63,519.83,841.85,403.77,173.9股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益合合計計19,826.821,905.022,227.023,788.932,313.

44、1負負債債和和股股東東權(quán)權(quán)益益總總計計29,616.633,134.239,356.842,219.051,084.4平平衡衡嗎嗎？OKOKOKOKOK預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年1,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1266.1909.31,091.11,230.61,330.01,423.11,510.01,590.61,674.02,055.42,373.32,627.62,792.93,039.43,

45、285.8357.5439.0506.9561.2615.5669.8724.14,483.16,102.07,362.59,126.410,530.811,599.613,340.72,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.62,192.657,281.564,705.171,771.578,480.984,833.090,828.096,465.912.011.010.09.08.07.06.063,969.273,010.681,336.689,808.897,564.4104,627.2112,005.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

46、80.080.080.080.080.080.080.01,212.51,488.71,719.01,903.12,087.32,271.52,455.71,021.31,238.81,428.91,563.21,703.71,854.32,010.9450.9553.6639.2707.7776.2844.7913.22,764.63,361.13,867.14,254.14,647.25,050.55,459.826,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.829,640.436,236.941,742.947,129.851

47、,523.054,926.358,335.525,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.325,139.39,189.511,634.414,454.517,539.720,902.124,561.728,530.434,328.836,773.739,593.842,678.946,041.449,701.053,669.763,969.273,010.681,336.689,808.897,564.4104,627.2112,005.2OKOKOKOKOKOKOK電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年20

48、16年2017年8,524.98,994.79,675.6266.1266.1266.11,664.91,676.41,629.83,532.23,655.53,655.5778.4805.6805.614,766.515,398.116,032.62,192.62,192.62,192.6101,746.798,956.096,093.95.04.03.0118,710.7116,550.7114,322.00.00.00.080.080.080.02,639.92,732.02,732.02,173.72,316.22,383.5981.71,015.91,015.95,875.36,14

49、4.16,211.454,875.847,875.840,875.860,751.054,019.847,087.125,139.325,139.325,139.332,820.437,391.642,095.657,959.762,530.967,234.8118,710.7116,550.7114,322.0OKOKOK電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流量量表表2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年經(jīng)經(jīng)營營活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流凈凈利利潤潤3,391.93,844.0（其他收入和費用）(57.6)(5

50、7.6)+折舊1,326.41,683.5+攤銷1.01.0營運資金減少（增加）(377.7)21.7經(jīng)經(jīng)營營活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計計4,283.95,492.6投投資資活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流其他收入和費用57.657.6（資本性支出）(3,000.0)(10,000.0)短期投資減少（增加）0.00.0長期股權(quán)投資減少（增加）0.00.0投投資資活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計計(2,942.4)(9,942.4)融融資資活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流短期借款增加（減少）0.00.0長期借款增加（減少）1,000.00.0普通股增加（減少）0.06,754.1（紅利）(1,829.9)(2,073.8)融

51、融資資活活動動現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計計(829.9)4,680.2期初現(xiàn)金額670.41,182.1凈現(xiàn)金流511.6230.4融資缺口前的期末現(xiàn)金額670.41,182.11,412.5現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金分分配配所需現(xiàn)金486.4555.4多余現(xiàn)金695.7857.1融資缺口0.00.0年底現(xiàn)金1,182.11,412.5預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年4,377.15,309.36,124.06,699.67,301.77,947.08,618.2(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)2,21

52、9.32,576.42,933.53,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.0(372.2)(48.2)(19.3)(21.0)80.415.628.06,167.67,780.88,981.69,912.610,973.311,911.012,951.757.657.657.657.657.657.657.6(15,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(14,9

53、42.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)(9,942.4)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.011,000.06,000.05,000.05,000.04,000.03,000.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0(2,361.4)(2,864.3)(3,303.9)(3,614.4)(3,939.3)(4,287.4)(4,649.5)8,638.63,135.71,696.11,385.660.7(1,287.4)(1,649.5)1,412.51,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65

54、,433.26,114.4(136.2)974.1735.41,355.81,091.7681.21,359.81,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2620.0761.3879.0973.21,067.41,161.51,255.7656.31,489.12,106.83,368.44,365.94,952.96,218.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.01,276.32,250.42,985.74,341.65,433.26,114.47,474.2電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年

55、2016年2017年9,316.09,926.510,214.9(57.6)(57.6)(57.6)4,719.34,790.74,862.11.01.01.040.4106.9113.914,019.114,767.515,134.357.657.657.6(10,000.0)(2,000.0)(2,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.0(9,942.4)(1,942.4)(1,942.4)0.00.00.02,000.0(7,000.0)(7,000.0)0.00.00.0(5,026.0)(5,355.4)(5,511.0)(3,026.0)(12,355.4)(12,511.

56、0)7,474.28,524.98,994.71,050.7469.7681.08,524.98,994.79,675.61,349.91,397.01,397.07,175.07,597.78,278.60.00.00.08,524.98,994.79,675.6電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測比比例例2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年關(guān)關(guān)鍵鍵數(shù)數(shù)字字營業(yè)收入6,734.17,838.88,106.29,257.5EBITDA5,901.56,964.77,288.78,345.5EBIT4,948.55,

57、744.45,961.36,660.9所得稅率33.0%32.9%33.0%33.0%EBIAT3,316.03,856.53,994.14,462.8財務費用419.0828.9956.5981.3融資缺口0.00.00.00.0短期借款160.080.080.080.0長期借款8,363.114,875.815,875.815,875.8股東權(quán)益21,905.022,227.023,788.932,313.1盈盈利利性性營業(yè)收入增長率16.4%3.4%14.2%EBITDA/營業(yè)收入88.8%89.9%90.1%EBIT/營業(yè)收入73.3%73.5%72.0%凈資產(chǎn)收益率15.0%14.3

58、%11.9%凈營運資產(chǎn)30,428.137,182.739,744.748,268.9凈營運資產(chǎn)增加額6,754.62,562.08,524.2EBIAT的增加額540.5137.6468.7新投資的回報率8.0%5.4%5.5%預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年10,333.112,687.714,649.816,219.517,789.219,358.920,928.69,325.711,453.713,228.214,649.016,070.517,492.618,915.37,105.48,876.310,293.711,

59、357.312,421.713,486.614,552.225.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%5,329.16,657.27,720.28,518.09,316.210,114.910,914.11,326.91,854.92,186.02,482.22,743.72,948.23,118.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.026,875.832,875.837,875.842,875.846,875.849,875.852,875.834,328.836,773.739,593.842,678.

60、946,041.449,701.053,669.711.6%22.8%15.5%10.7%9.7%8.8%8.1%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.3%90.4%90.4%68.8%70.0%70.3%70.0%69.8%69.7%69.5%12.8%14.4%15.5%15.7%15.9%16.0%16.1%61,284.669,729.577,549.585,634.792,997.299,656.8106,625.413,015.78,444.97,820.18,085.27,362.46,659.66,968.7866.31,328.11,063.0797.8798.279

61、8.7799.26.7%15.7%13.6%9.9%10.8%12.0%11.5%電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年22,498.323,283.223,283.220,338.621,052.921,057.515,618.416,261.216,194.425.0%25.0%25.0%11,713.812,195.912,145.83,254.63,083.52,632.10.00.00.080.080.080.054,875.847,875.840,875.857,959.762,530.967,234.87.5%3.5%0.0

62、%90.4%90.4%90.4%69.4%69.8%69.6%16.1%15.9%15.2%112,915.5110,486.6108,190.66,290.0(2,428.8)(2,296.0)799.6482.1(50.1)12.7%-19.8%2.2%電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型除特殊說明外所有數(shù)字單位為百萬歷史歷史歷史預測預測折折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流模模型型2003年2004年2005年2006年2007年加加權(quán)權(quán)平平均均資資本本成成本本（WACC）稅前債權(quán)成本6.2%稅率33.0%無風險利率3.0%市場收益率13.5%BETA系數(shù)0.8目標股權(quán)比例70.6%目標債

63、權(quán)比例29.4%稅后債權(quán)成本4.2%股權(quán)成本11.4%CAPMWACC9.3%自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流EBIT5,961.36,660.9（所得稅）(1,967.2)(2,198.1)EBIAT3,994.14,462.8+折舊1,326.41,683.5+攤銷1.01.0營運資金減少（增加）(377.7)21.7（資本性支出）(3,000.0)(10,000.0)無無杠杠桿桿自自由由現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流合合計計1,943.8(3,831.0)折折現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金金流流模模型型EBITDA退出倍數(shù)8終值計算折現(xiàn)年份0.51.5折現(xiàn)因子0.960.88現(xiàn)值1,859.5(3,354.0)預測期現(xiàn)金流總和13,69

64、8.5終值的現(xiàn)值60,778.7企企業(yè)業(yè)價價值值（EV）74,477.1貨幣資金670.4短期投資266.1長期股權(quán)投資2,192.6資資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)價價值值77,606.2債務合計14,955.8內(nèi)內(nèi)含含股股權(quán)權(quán)價價值值62,650.5已發(fā)行普通股數(shù)8,186.7內(nèi)內(nèi)含含股股價價7.65敏敏感感性性分分析析wacc7.658.67%8.87%9.07%9.27%9.47%ex6.5 x7.657.657.657.657.657.0 x7.657.657.657.657.657.5 x7.657.657.657.657.658.0 x7.657.657.657.657.658.5 x7.657.657

65、.657.657.659.0 x7.657.657.657.657.659.5 x7.657.657.657.657.65預測預測預測預測預測預測預測2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年7,105.48,876.310,293.711,357.312,421.713,486.614,552.2(1,776.4)(2,219.1)(2,573.4)(2,839.3)(3,105.4)(3,371.6)(3,638.0)5,329.16,657.27,720.28,518.09,316.210,114.910,914.12,219.32,576.42,933.53

66、,290.73,647.84,005.04,362.11.01.01.01.01.01.01.0(372.2)(48.2)(19.3)(21.0)80.415.628.0(15,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(10,000.0)(7,822.8)(813.6)635.51,788.73,045.54,136.65,305.22.53.54.55.56.57.58.50.800.730.670.610.560.510.47(6,267.8)(596.6)426.51,098.51,711.62,127.62,497.2電電力力公公司司財財務務預預測測與與估估值值模模型型9.67%9.87%7.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.657.65預測預測預測2015年2016年2017年15,618.416,261.216,194.4(3,904.6)(4,065.3)(4,048.6)11,713.812,195.912,145.84,719.34,7